FORECAST Act of 2025
- Bill Number
- S. 1484
- Origin Chamber
- Senate
- Congress
- 119th Congress, Session 1
- Policy Area
- Science, Technology, Communications
- Status
- Introduced
- Latest Action
- 2025-04-10: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
- Last Updated
- 2025-05-20T13:26:54Z
AI-Generated Summary
Purpose
The FORECAST Act of 2025 aims to enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) capabilities in weather research and forecasting, with a focus on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. These are forecasts covering periods from about two weeks to several months ahead, which help predict temperature, precipitation, and related events like droughts or floods. The bill seeks to improve the accuracy and usability of these forecasts to better support decision-making in areas like agriculture, disaster preparedness, and resource management.
Key Provisions
- Enhancements to S2S Forecasting (Amendments to the Food Security Act of 1985):
- Requires NOAA's Under Secretary (the head of NOAA) to conduct research on predictability factors for temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system variables (e.g., atmosphere, ocean, land, ice processes).
- Mandates collection and use of observational data to produce reliable S2S forecasts.
- Prioritizes development of multi-model ensemble systems (combining multiple computer models for more accurate predictions), advanced data assimilation (integrating new data into models), and forecast evaluation tools.
- Encourages collaboration with other agencies, leveraging existing models, and accelerating the use of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and unmanned systems (e.g., drones).
- Requires linking forecasts to potential impacts, such as the severity of natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, wildfires), snowpack levels, sea ice, and permafrost changes (thawing of frozen ground that can release greenhouse gases).
- Directs creation of an online clearinghouse (a public website) for sharing national and regional forecasts and related data.
- Aligns activities with a 2018 NOAA report on S2S forecasting innovations.
- Authorizes $28.5 million for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 for these activities, plus additional funds as needed for modeling under the 2017 Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act.
- Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program (New Addition to the 2017 Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act):
- Establishes a program to educate and recruit experts in weather modeling, data assimilation (processing observational data into models), and related technologies like AI and next-generation computing.
- Supports scholarships, fellowships, and research at universities to build skills in these areas.
- Requires annual human capital plans to identify workforce gaps (e.g., funding shortages, hiring issues, staff turnover) and strategies to address them, including submission to the Secretary of Commerce and the Office of Management and Budget.
- Allows use of federal hiring pathways (simplified recruitment processes) and partnerships with universities or nonprofits to fill gaps.
- Updates NOAA's direct hiring authority (expedited hiring for specialized roles) to include this program and related fellowships/internships.
- Mandates a report to Congress within two years on the program's effectiveness in improving workforce quality.
- Authorizes "such sums as may be necessary" (undetermined funding levels) to implement the program.
Significant Changes to Existing Law
- Amendments to the Food Security Act of 1985 (Section 1762): Expands NOAA's core functions beyond basic research to include operational forecasting, technology integration, public data sharing, and explicit links to disaster impacts. It also boosts funding authorizations and defines "Earth system" more broadly to encompass interconnected environmental processes.
- Additions to the 2017 Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act: Introduces a dedicated workforce program (Section 415) not previously existing, focusing on human capital planning and recruitment for advanced modeling. This includes clerical updates to the Act's table of contents for organizational clarity.
- Overall, the bill shifts emphasis from short-term weather to longer-range S2S predictions, emphasizing multi-model approaches and AI, while adding workforce development to sustain innovation.
Potential Impacts
- On Government Agencies: Strengthens NOAA's role in climate and weather science, potentially improving coordination with other federal entities (e.g., via shared models and data). It may increase demands on the Department of Commerce for budgeting and oversight, including human capital planning.
- On Citizens: Enhances access to reliable S2S forecasts through a public website, aiding farmers (for crop planning), emergency managers (for disaster response), and the public (for preparing for events like floods or heat waves). This could reduce economic losses from weather-related disasters, estimated in billions annually.
- On International Relations: Indirectly supports global efforts by improving U.S. contributions to international weather data sharing and modeling collaborations, though no specific foreign partnerships are mandated.
Main Stakeholders Affected
- NOAA and Federal Agencies: Primary implementers, including the Under Secretary, modeling teams, and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center; they gain funding and workforce tools but face new reporting requirements.
- Researchers, Educators, and Workforce: Scientists, engineers, and students in weather/climate fields benefit from scholarships, fellowships, and hiring pathways; universities and nonprofits can receive grants for training and technology integration.
- Congressional Committees: The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation and House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology oversee implementation and receive reports.
- Broader Public and Industries: Farmers, disaster response teams, energy sectors (e.g., for renewable planning), and coastal communities gain from improved forecasts; no direct burdens on citizens.
Notable Legal, Constitutional, or Political Implications
- Legal: Authorizes specific appropriations, which must align with broader federal budgeting processes; enables partnerships with nonprofits and universities under existing authorities, without creating new regulatory burdens. The bill's focus on "such sums as may be necessary" for workforce funding provides flexibility but could lead to debates over exact amounts in appropriations bills.
- Constitutional: No apparent conflicts; it supports the federal government's role in science and commerce under Article I powers (e.g., regulating interstate commerce affected by weather). Enhances executive branch operations within NOAA without infringing on states' rights.
- Political: Bipartisan introduction (cosponsored by senators from both parties) signals broad support for climate resilience amid growing extreme weather concerns. It could influence future climate policy by prioritizing AI and modeling investments, potentially setting precedents for funding emerging technologies in environmental science. No controversial mandates, but reliance on a 2018 report ties it to prior nonpartisan assessments.
This summary was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies. Refer to the official source document for the authoritative text.
Sponsor
Cosponsors (3)
Sen. Wicker, Roger F. [R-MS], Sen. Padilla, Alex [D-CA], Sen. Rosen, Jacky [D-NV]
Recent Actions
- 2025-04-10: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
- 2025-04-10: Introduced in Senate
Bill Versions
- Forecasting Optimization for Robust Earth Climate Analysis and S2S Tracking Act of 2025 — issued 2025-04-10 — PDF (12 pages)