PREDICT Act
- Bill Number
- H.R. 8076
- Origin Chamber
- House
- Congress
- 119th Congress, Session 2
- Policy Area
- Government Operations and Politics
- Status
- Introduced
- Latest Action
- 2026-03-25: Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House Administration, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
- Last Updated
- 2026-06-03T08:08:37Z
AI-Generated Summary
Purpose
The PREDICT Act (H.R. 8076) aims to prevent insider trading and conflicts of interest by prohibiting certain high-level federal officials, their families, and related parties from participating in prediction markets. These are financial contracts where payouts depend on whether specific political events occur (e.g., election outcomes).
Key Provisions
- Definitions (Sec. 13151):
- Covered individual includes Members of Congress, their spouses/dependent children, fiduciaries acting on their behalf, congressional staff, the President, Vice President, political appointees (e.g., Executive Schedule positions), senior executive branch employees (above GS-15 level or equivalent), and judicial officers/employees.
- Other terms defined: independent agency, political appointee, and supervising ethics office (e.g., Office of Government Ethics for independent agencies).
- Trading Ban (Sec. 13152): Covered individuals cannot enter agreements, contracts, or transactions tied to political events while in federal service. Supervising ethics offices must issue guidance on unclear terms.
- Penalties (Sec. 13153):
- Violators pay a 10% fee on the transaction value plus all profits gained, directed by the supervising ethics office.
- Penalties go to the U.S. Treasury and cannot be paid from official allowances, campaign funds, or other government-linked sources (only personal salary allowed).
- Ethics offices must publicly post details of fines, reasons, and outcomes on websites.
Significant Changes to Existing Law
- Adds a new Subchapter IV to Chapter 131 of Title 5, U.S. Code (existing ethics rules for federal personnel).
- Introduces the first specific federal ban on prediction market trading for a broad range of officials, with tailored penalties and public reporting not previously mandated for this activity.
Potential Impacts
- Government Agencies: Supervising ethics offices gain enforcement duties, including guidance issuance and public reporting, increasing administrative workload.
- Citizens: Enhances transparency via public fine disclosures; protects market integrity by curbing potential insider advantages.
- No direct international relations impact noted.
Main Stakeholders Affected
- Covered individuals: High-level officials across legislative, executive, and judicial branches, plus their families and fiduciaries—directly restricted in financial activities.
- Ethics offices: Responsible for enforcement, guidance, and reporting.
- Taxpayers/Public: Benefit from disgorged profits to Treasury and increased accountability.
Notable Legal, Constitutional, or Political Implications
- Legal: Expands ethics enforcement with financial penalties and strict payment rules, potentially overlapping with existing insider trading laws (e.g., STOCK Act).
- Constitutional: May raise free speech or due process questions if trading seen as expression, though focused on conflicts during service.
- Political: Targets real-time political betting to prevent exploitation of non-public information, promoting public trust in government without broader market regulation.
This summary was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies. Refer to the official source document for the authoritative text.
Sponsor
Rep. Budzinski, Nikki [D-IL-13]
Cosponsors (25)
Rep. Smith, Adrian [R-NE-3], Rep. Magaziner, Seth [D-RI-2], Rep. Wied, Tony [R-WI-8], Rep. Lawler, Michael [R-NY-17], Del. Norton, Eleanor Holmes [D-DC-At Large], Rep. Hinson, Ashley [R-IA-2], Rep. McCollum, Betty [D-MN-4], Rep. Baird, James R. [R-IN-4], Rep. Pingree, Chellie [D-ME-1], Rep. Fedorchak, Julie [R-ND-At Large], Rep. Perez, Marie Gluesenkamp [D-WA-3], Rep. Miller-Meeks, Mariannette [R-IA-1], Rep. Green, Al [D-TX-9], Rep. Stanton, Greg [D-AZ-4], Rep. Barrett, Tom [R-MI-7], Rep. Trahan, Lori [D-MA-3], Rep. Fitzpatrick, Brian K. [R-PA-1], Rep. Foushee, Valerie P. [D-NC-4], Rep. Joyce, John [R-PA-13], Rep. Bice, Stephanie I. [R-OK-5], Rep. Bera, Ami [D-CA-6], Rep. Foxx, Virginia [R-NC-5], Rep. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ-8], Rep. Moore, Blake D. [R-UT-1], Rep. Deluzio, Christopher R. [D-PA-17]
Recent Actions
- 2026-03-25: Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House Administration, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
- 2026-03-25: Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House Administration, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
- 2026-03-25: Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House Administration, and the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
- 2026-03-25: Introduced in House
- 2026-03-25: Introduced in House
Bill Versions
- Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act — issued 2026-03-25 — PDF (6 pages)