Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act

Bill Number

H.R. 4302

Origin Chamber

House

Congress

119th Congress, Session 1

Policy Area

Science, Technology, Communications

Status

Introduced

Latest Action

2025-07-07: Referred to the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

Last Updated

2025-09-11T17:17:11Z

AI-Generated Summary

Purpose of the Legislation

The Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act (H.R. 4302) aims to enhance weather prediction capabilities in the United States, specifically by improving forecasts for precipitation (rain and snow) over periods of weeks to months (known as subseasonal to seasonal forecasts) to better support water resource planning in the western U.S. It also seeks to strengthen nationwide forecasts for atmospheric rivers—long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that can lead to heavy rain, flooding, and snow accumulation—ultimately reducing risks to life, property, and the economy from these events.

Key Provisions

• Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting Pilot Projects (Section 2):
• Establishes at least one pilot project under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) U.S. Weather Research Program to improve precipitation forecasts for water management in the western U.S.
• Focuses on addressing scientific challenges, such as:
• Enhancing model accuracy for mountainous areas, including better prediction of rain versus snow.
• Improving simulations of air layers near the ground and atmospheric rivers.
• Predicting weather patterns like storm paths and blocked air flows over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S.
• Developing tools to forecast active or inactive periods of atmospheric river impacts.
• Requires coordination with NOAA's research and weather service offices, implementation of recommendations from a 2019 NOAA report, measurable forecast improvements, and partnerships with universities and NOAA centers like the Western Regional Climate Center.
• Authorizes $15 million annually from NOAA's operations, research, and facilities budget for fiscal years 2026 through 2030.
• The pilot projects sunset (end) five years after enactment.

• Atmospheric Rivers Forecast Improvement Program (Section 3):
• Creates a new program led by NOAA's Under Secretary, in partnership with the weather industry (private forecasting companies) and academic institutions.
• Goals include developing accurate forecasts and warnings to minimize deaths, property damage, and economic losses from atmospheric rivers, through activities like:
• Creating metrics to measure forecast accuracy, incorporating advanced techniques like computer modeling, data integration, and machine learning (AI-based pattern recognition).
• Building integrated forecast systems for short- to long-term predictions, including snow and water-related effects.
• Advancing understanding of atmospheric rivers' role in longer-term weather and creating user-friendly tools for predicting their landfall and inland movement.
• Transitioning research into practical tools via NOAA testbeds (experimental environments) and incorporating social sciences (e.g., how people perceive and respond to warnings).
• Mandates periodic evaluation of new observation methods (e.g., satellites, ocean sensors) to refine forecasts.
• Requires a detailed public plan within 270 days of enactment, covering research, partnerships, timelines, and resources; annual budget submissions to Congress thereafter.
• Supports improved modeling, such as high-resolution prototypes developed with external partners, better use of satellite/ocean data, AI applications, and enhanced monitoring in vulnerable areas.
• Ensures aircraft reconnaissance (flights to collect data during storms) for atmospheric rivers and hurricanes, with data sharing for research, in coordination with the U.S. Air Force.
• Promotes better public communication of risks, including categorizing event intensity, best practices for warnings, assessing public preparedness, and explaining varying impacts (beneficial low-intensity moisture vs. hazardous high-intensity flooding).

Significant Changes to Existing Law

• Amends subsection (h) of section 1762 of the Food Security Act of 1985 (codified at 15 U.S.C. 8521), which previously addressed subseasonal to seasonal forecasting but now specifically mandates pilot projects focused on western U.S. precipitation and atmospheric rivers, with new objectives, activities, funding authorizations, and a sunset provision.
• Introduces entirely new requirements for an atmospheric river forecast program, including planning, budgeting, reconnaissance, and communication elements, which were not previously detailed in law.
• Builds on the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 by defining key terms like "subseasonal," "seasonal," and "weather industry" from that act.

Potential Impacts

• On Government Agencies: Primarily affects NOAA by directing new research, program development, and funding allocation, potentially increasing workload for its Oceanic and Atmospheric Research office and National Weather Service. It also involves coordination with the U.S. Air Force for aircraft operations, which could strain or expand joint missions.
• On Citizens: Improves forecast accuracy for water supply planning (e.g., reservoirs, agriculture, drought management) in the water-scarce western U.S., and reduces flood/landslide risks from atmospheric rivers nationwide, potentially saving lives and lowering disaster recovery costs for residents in vulnerable areas like California.
• On International Relations: Minimal direct impact, though enhanced U.S. forecasting capabilities could indirectly benefit cross-border weather coordination (e.g., with Canada or Mexico on Pacific storm tracking) via shared data.

Main Stakeholders Affected

• Government Entities: NOAA (lead agency), National Weather Service, U.S. Air Force (for reconnaissance flights).
• Private and Academic Sectors: Weather industry partners (e.g., forecasting firms), universities with expertise in climate and precipitation science.
• Public and Regional Groups: Water managers, farmers, and communities in the western U.S. (e.g., those reliant on snowpack for water); broader U.S. population in atmospheric river-prone areas (e.g., Pacific Coast states) benefiting from better warnings.
• Research Institutions: NOAA centers like the Western Regional Climate Center and National Centers for Environmental Information.

Notable Legal, Constitutional, or Political Implications

• Legal: Authorizes specific appropriations without mandating them, giving Congress flexibility in funding; includes a sunset clause for pilots to ensure temporary, targeted investment. Emphasizes public data sharing and partnerships, promoting transparency under existing federal research laws.
• Constitutional: No apparent conflicts; aligns with Congress's authority to regulate commerce and fund science for public welfare (e.g., disaster preparedness under the Commerce Clause).
• Political: Encourages bipartisan collaboration on climate resilience (introduced by representatives from California districts prone to water issues), potentially advancing national weather policy amid growing concerns over extreme weather events. The focus on measurable outcomes and annual reporting to Congress provides oversight to prevent inefficient spending.

This summary was generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies. Refer to the official source document for the authoritative text.

Sponsor

Rep. Obernolte, Jay [R-CA-23]

Cosponsors (5)

Rep. Fong, Vince [R-CA-20], Rep. Whitesides, George [D-CA-27], Rep. Correa, J. Luis [D-CA-46], Rep. Vindman, Eugene Simon [D-VA-7], Rep. Matsui, Doris O. [D-CA-7]

Recent Actions

• 2025-07-07: Referred to the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.
• 2025-07-07: Introduced in House
• 2025-07-07: Introduced in House

Bill Versions

• Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act — issued 2025-07-07 — PDF (10 pages)